Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine?
Saw a short blurb about this on Gayapolis, and the link below is to the original post on FiveThirtyEight.com. Nate Silver re-examiones his model for marriage bans to consider the upcoming Maine election. The piece is a good read, and the bottom line is that Nate feels it could be a very close race.
I think there are two things that may make the difference in this election: turnout and message. Because it is an off-year election, no one is quite sure who will get more voters to the polls. Without a doubt, those opposed to gay marriage will be working hard on this one. Their TV campaigns are designed to initiate a fear response which can easily translate into votes. As an off-year, an older population is also more likely to vote, and that may be a group more opposed to gay marriage. The anti-gay fringe of the Republican party really really needs a big win too, and the party is looking for something to get them back on track. A win against gay marriage will enbolden them to see themselves as the family values party again, and help them sweep under the carpet recent sex scandals. I don’t think we should underestimate how crucial a win is for the family values folks, and they are willing to do almost anything to get it.
The other important issue is message. Nate’s work is all about the numbers, but what is happening on the ground. As a commenter noted, in California, the pro- Prop 8 folks “…outmaneuvered from the very beginning. We (No on Prop-8 supporters) had enthusiastic supporters and actually outraised our opponents, but the leadership and messaging was abysmal.”
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Analysis: Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine.
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