I have started this same idea for a post a few times, and get part way in and then set it aside. Then, I come across another article that throws the idea right back in my lap. So here it is. The Post!
The linked article lays out a really important dynamic at work in this year’s PA Governor’s race. Few people are really talking abut the issues, but EVERYONE is talking about who is going to win with Onorato as the underdog, who doesn’t have a chance, and Corbett the shoe in. At least Madonna and Young acknowledge that the two candidates have dramatically opposing ideas, platforms and philosophies. Too bad they spend their time talking about BS instead of the real issues facing the state.
The Democratic syllogism goes like this: Pennsylvania has never elected an attorney general as governor; Tom Corbett is attorney general; therefore, Tom Corbett ain’t going to be elected governor in November.
Not surprisingly, the Republican syllogism is a little different: No party has won the governor’s office three times in a row in modern times; Democrats in November are running for a third consecutive term; therefore, Democratic candidate Dan Onorato ain’t going to be elected governor in November.
I don’t know about the “Democratic syllogism,” this is actually the first place I ever read that, so I’m not sure it is the syllogism, or if the writers made it one to have an article. But the “Republican syllogism,” has been stated over and over by many. What is most unfortunate, is the way Madonna and Young connect it to assumptive conclusions that deserve to be taken apart, as weak assumptions and little more.
The premise is that PA voters are robots who vote one direction twice, and then another direction, twice, and then back to the first. It suggests that the voters simply go with the flow, believing the political hype enough for a split second in the voting booth- believe that “the other guy,” no matter who he is, has the right answer. Any pundit expressing this is using it more like a hypnotic induction phrase: you are getting sleepy… you will now vote the other way. The reality is a lot more complex. But the outcome really is up to you. Either you, as voter go along and continue the 8-year cycle, or you actually make a vote based on the issues and the candidates and what each have to bring to the table.
I think you can always tell when conservatives are writing, because the style is to paint with these big brushstrokes of what the election will mean. Take this comment:
If Corbett and the Republicans win, it means that competitive two-party politics remain alive and well in Pennsylvania, that the gubernatorial seat continues to switch at regular eight-year intervals, and that a new political force — the crusading state prosecutor — will become a major force in state politics.
None of these consequences is trivial. Two-party competition has been a feature — some might say “the feature” — of modern state politics. A one-party state will be perceived as good by some and bad by others. But good or bad, such a trend would radically transform state politics.
Doesn’t that sound an awful lot like “Obama is a socialist”?
Our state has a very active and effective multi-party system. Currently the Senate is Republican led, the House is Democrat led, and we have a Democrat governor. I actually think if Corbett wins, any effective 2 party system will be harmed far more than if Onorato is elected. One-party state, what a fear tactic! Even if you count Onorato as the winner, the State Senate will remain controlled by the Republicans, and this is Madonna and Young’s idea of a one party state?
Pennsylvania isn’t now, nor has it been in recent times, either a Republican or a Democratic state. It is and will remain a fairly conservative state. This won’t really change based on who wins the governor’s seat. Even Onorato, who Madonna and Young are trying to paint as the far left liberal who will end 2 party control in the state, is pretty conservative on many issues. He is without a doubt the easiest Democrat that a card carrying Republican could support without too much trouble, and enough of a Democrat to keep the state’s liberal voters on his side.
My favorite point from the post comes from the comments section:
Buck298 at 6:24 AM July 07, 2010
Two main reasons why the next Governor will be Republican…..Rendell and Obama.
When your choice is based, not on the person who is actually running, but on some myth of other unconnected people, it offers nothing useful. Pennsylvania needs strong and proven leadership in managing a complex state. Only one of the candidates has that, and it isn’t Tom Corbett. Corbett  has a recent record of pointing out some corruption that was as hard to find as finding people who call grass green and the sky blue. Indeed, the lopsidedness of the results against Democrats until there was such an uproar says that the action was more politically motivated than anything else. and pointing out corruption alone won’t get the state turned around. Skillful management with a willingness to keep everyone at the table and part of the solution will turn Pennsylvania around.
via Corbett Onorato: Corbett-Onorato race for Pennsylvania governor – mcall.com.