I linked to a news report about this Rasmussen poll yesterday on Facebook, and one of my friends was asking for more information. This post from the Centrist does a nice job flushing out what the numbers might mean.
Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato is the one Democrat who appears to be gaining some ground. Corbett now gets 45% of the vote to Onorato’s 36%. Eight percent (8%) like another candidate, and 11% are undecided. A month ago, Corbett led Onorato 46% to 29%, but he posted a two-to-one lead – 52% to 26% – over the Democrat in February.
Corbett holds a 49% to 29% lead over former Congressman Joe Hoeffel, who, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, views himself as the only true liberal among the Democratic candidates. Given this match-up, 11% prefer some other candidate, and 11% more are undecided. This race is virtually unchanged over the past two surveys.
There is more in the post about Wagner, but I’m going to focus on these two for now. For me there are 2 telling points being made by these poll numbers, both significant. First, Onorato is gaining ground against Corbett who is losing it. Second, inspite of all of his efforts, Hoeffel doesn’t seem to be able to change his rankings much at all.
One of the things I see happening here in Pittsburgh, is that some within the LGBT community are going full force in attacks against Onorato, claiming that he isn’t really a progressive, and it is quite true that Hoeffel is a far more progressive candidate than Onorato. But what will the whole state say and want in a Democratic candidate, and what type of candidate can win in the Fall?
One issue may be that except for some in the LGBT community, the biggest issues in this election are jobs, the size and efficiency of government, and the economy. Hoeffel’s excellent credentials as a progressive may be one reason why he isn’t gaining much ground. I don’t say that as a criticism for his views. I like and agree with everything he stands for. I’m not however convinced that he can carry the state with such a liberal platform. I think that while Onorato isn’t as liberal (for example, Hoeffel is pro same-sex marriage, while Onorato is pro civil unions), his track record in Allegheny County is a great illustration for what he can do as a Governor for the state as a whole in the areas of employment, spending, and government.
As a voter, the Onorato camp has never talked to me as a gay man, as if the only thing I care about are LGBT specific issues. Hoeffel on the other hand, has done just that.The message presented to me, in several venues have been all about his stance of LGBT issues (where he is clearly very positive) like gay marriage. But I, like many people, a not a single issue voter. LGBT issues don’t have a chance to pass if the state is suffering and behind in every other area as well. I know Hoeffel has ideas about other things, but that message isn’t getting to me as a gay man. I believe, partly because of personal experience, that Onorato will help LGBT rights move father ahead in Pennsylvania, and that he will be responsive to the LGBT community, while being able to be responsive to the state as a whole and all of the big ticket issues that impact the state.
Given the Rasmussen numbers of 11% undecided, Onorato could win today against Corbett, and none of the other candidates can say that. However, the entire undecided block isn’t likely to all vote for Onorato. Still, if his numbers continue to rise while Corbett’s fall, he has a real chance at winning against him in the Fall
THE CENTRIST: Rasmussen Poll: Corbett, Onorato will vie for PA governor.